The analysis "The future of agriculture in the MENA region: navigating food security and climate resilience" examines how agriculture across the Middle East and North Africa is being reshaped by food insecurity, water scarcity, land degradation, climate change and geopolitical instability. Published by the Carboun Institute, it compares the sector's declining socio-economic role with its growing environmental costs and explores the tension between food self-sufficiency and long-term climate resilience. Drawing on regional data from 1960 to 2026, the analysis argues for structural reform in water governance, agricultural production, financing and food systems, while prioritising diversified production, land restoration, efficient infrastructure and stronger links between climate, nature and development finance.
Key Insights
Agriculture employs around one-fifth of the workforce in non-GCC MENA countries and contributes an average of 14% of their GDP, compared with less than 1.5% of GDP on average in GCC countries.
All countries assessed are net food importers. Import dependency ranges from around 20% of domestic food supply in Egypt and Iran to more than 100% in some GCC countries, which rely on imports for over 90% of domestic consumption while also functioning as major re-export hubs.
Between 1960 and 2011, regional demand for agricultural products increased six-fold while agricultural production increased only fourfold, widening the gap between domestic food demand and supply.
By 2024, 40.2% of the region's population was experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity, reflecting the combined effects of conflict, displacement, disrupted agricultural supply chains and growing climate pressures.
Agriculture accounts for an average of 67% of total freshwater withdrawals across the countries assessed. When only groundwater and surface water are considered, the regional agricultural share commonly cited in the literature rises to approximately 80–85%.
The region has some of the world's highest water subsidies, which can obscure the real cost of inefficient agricultural practices. Regional water productivity is estimated at only around half the global average.
Climate projections suggest that agricultural systems in the Maghreb are among the most vulnerable globally, with the potential loss of around half of cultivable land by 2050.
The Arab region averages 38% degradation of total cropland, compared with a global average of 31%. Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria each have 60% or more of their cropland degraded.
The World Bank estimated that ecosystem-service losses associated with land degradation in MENA averaged about US$5,600 per person and US$300,000 per square kilometre in 2019, compared with global averages of around US$1,000 per person and US$50,000 per square kilometre.
