WORLD – Global commodity prices are expected to increase by 23% in 2026 as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and climate risks put pressure on energy and food markets, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 28.
The report projects that energy prices will rise by 32% this year, reaching their highest level in four years, largely due to the conflict in the Middle East and declining global oil inventories.
Brent crude oil is expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before falling to $79 in 2027.
Food commodity prices are also expected to increase by approximately 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, bringing the cumulative increase to 18%. The report attributes this trend to disrupted grain shipments, the risk of El Niño affecting harvests, and higher fuel and fertilizer costs.
Conflict and Climate Risks Threaten Food Security
The World Bank warned that further escalation of conflicts could push commodity prices beyond current projections, particularly if disruptions to energy supplies and grain shipments intensify.
In an adverse scenario involving escalating tensions, continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure, and severe El Niño conditions, Brent crude could average $105 per barrel in 2027. Food commodity prices could also exceed baseline projections by 12%, surpassing their 2022 levels.
The report also projects that global oil supply will decline by 5.2% in 2026, marking its largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Oil consumption is expected to fall by 2.5%, as high prices and supply shortages reduce demand.
Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are forecast to increase by 14% in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Metals and Precious Metals Reach New Highs
Metal prices are expected to increase by 25% in 2026, reaching a new record. Aluminum, copper, and tin prices are all projected to hit historic highs, driven by demand from renewable energy investments, electric vehicles, and data centers, alongside supply disruptions.
Precious metals prices are forecast to rise by 40% this year as investors seek safer assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Although prices are expected to moderate in 2027, they will remain significantly above their 2015–2019 average.
World Bank Makes Up to $60 Billion Available
World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose warned that rising energy costs and trade disruptions could worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth, particularly affecting low-income countries already facing heavy debt burdens.
To help countries manage the impact of rising prices, the World Bank Group has made between $50 billion and $60 billion available through existing financing instruments, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing.
The funding aims to support social protection programs for vulnerable populations, strengthen government finances, and provide liquidity and working capital to businesses and agricultural producers.
The report also highlights the growing interconnectedness of commodity markets, noting that price volatility across different sectors becomes more pronounced during periods of economic and geopolitical stress. Industrial metals have been the largest source of price volatility for other commodity groups, while oil's influence has increased since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
